Decide your buys with confluence, not gut feel.
Every buy backed by numbers, conviction, and a clear exit — so each decision is recorded with discipline instead of gut feel.
Analyses
MSCI Checker
Track how close a stock is to MSCI inclusion thresholds, and project the price needed to reach the market-cap cut-off.
Checks
Daily Macro Dashboard — IHSG
| Indicator | Value | vs Yesterday | Signal | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (Dollar Index) | {{trend:dxy_t}} | — | >105 = pressure • peaking/breakdown = relief | |
| UST 10Y Yield (%) | {{trend:ust_t}} | — | >4,5% = early warning | |
| Fed Cut Probability (%) | {{trend:fed_t}} | — | CME FedWatch • >50% dovish = positive |
| Indicator | Value | vs Yesterday | Signal | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/IDR | {{trend:idr_t}} | — | Break ~18.000 = bearish | |
| SUN 10Y Yield (%) | {{trend:sun_t}} | — | Sharp rise = money flees to bonds | |
| Spread SUN − UST (Auto) | — | — | Wider = foreigners stay (>2,0% healthy) | |
| Foreign Net Flow (Rp bn) | {{trend:flow_t}} | — | Net buy = positive |
| Commodity | Price | vs 3 mo ago | Verdict (× DXY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal (Newcastle) | {{trend:coal_t}} | — | |
| Oil (Brent) | {{trend:brent_t}} | — | |
| Nickel (LME) | {{trend:nickel_t}} | — | |
| CPO (MDEX) | {{trend:cpo_t}} | — | |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | {{trend:gold_t}} | — |
Verdict = price direction × DXY direction: price ▲ + DXY ▼ = strongly bullish (double tailwind); price ▼ + DXY ▲ = strongly bearish (double hit); otherwise neutral. China PMI: 50-line (≥50 = healthy demand). Regulatory flag "Caution" overrides to careful regardless of the global price.
| Indicator | Input | Signal | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Position vs MA200 | — | Above = bullish bias • Below = bearish bias | |
| Market Breadth | — | See definitions below | |
| Foreign Net-Sell Streak (Days) | — | >7 days = correction warning |
Breadth definitions: Strong = IHSG up and multiple sectors up. Weak = IHSG up but driven by a few stocks. Big distribution = many stocks down + heavy volume + dominant selling pressure.
Exposure (per Portfolio & Risk Management): Above MA200 + Strong = 80–100% • Above MA200 + Weak = 50–70% • Below MA200 = 20–50% • Below MA200 + Big distribution = 0–20%.
Logic: Earnings Yield = 100 ÷ PE. If EY is still above the SUN 10Y yield (positive ERP), stocks are relatively attractive vs bonds. If ERP narrows/turns negative, bonds "win" → money tends to rotate from stocks into bonds.
| Macro Condition | Commodity Stocks | Domestic / Cyclical | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY ↓ + Fed dovish | BULLISH | BULLISH | Full deployment |
| DXY ↑ + Fed hawkish | BEARISH | BEARISH | Raise cash, defensives / USD exporters |
| DXY ↓ + Fed hawkish | Neutral-Bullish | Neutral | Selective, wait for confirmation |
| DXY ↑ + Fed dovish | Neutral-Bearish | Neutral | Reduce risk, keep sizing tight |
Macro override rule: when USD is strong + Fed hawkish, any bullish technical setup has low probability. Macro overrides technicals, not the other way around.
Cycle Position — Bottom & Peak Detector
Where the market sits between deep bottom and euphoria peak. A bottom or peak only confirms when enough signals hit the extreme together.